Questor: our Covid stocks have proved a mixed bag. Which do we hold and which do we sell?

After our latest look at AstraZeneca in Sunday’s column it’s an opportune moment to check progress at our other virus-related stocks. Some have certainly done better than others.

We’ll start with our biggest success, BioNTech, which we were fortunate enough to tip before its vaccine, developed with Pfizer, had been proved to work in clinical trials. Its shares, naturally enough, jumped after that news emerged a year ago and they have climbed further since, although it has been a bumpy ride.

We tipped the Nasdaq-quoted stock at $68.45 in August last year and by mid-July this year they had risen to about $230. They then shot up over the summer, to a peak of about $390, but have now subsided back to about $226, which still gives us a gain of 232pc. 

They fell by about 27pc last week alone after Moderna, BioNTech’s rival in the supply of mRNA vaccines, said its sales would disappoint this year.

Meanwhile Pfizer reported that its coronavirus treatment had done well in trials, which could conceivably reduce the need for vaccines, or at least people’s willingness to take them.

As a result, BioNTech’s shares are beginning to appear cheap on some measures: the price-to-earnings ratio is just 7.4.

Bianca Ogden of Platinum Asset Management, whose belief in BioNTech’s technology prompted last year’s tip, says: “I still have a little BioNTech – I tend not to sell out of biotechs completely. I am watching its pipeline of non-vaccine products.” 

When we first spoke to her about the company she stressed the potential for its mRNA technology in treating cancer, so it is far from dependent on its vaccines alone. “The mRNA arena is just getting started,” she says.

“If the share price doubled from here I might sell but it would depend on how it had progressed at that point. The company generates a lot of cash and you would want to see what it does with it.” Readers who invested large sums may want to bank some of their profits but our advice remains hold.

Questor says: hold

Ticker: Nasdaq: BNTX

Share price at close: $226.37

Update: CureVac

This company is, like BioNTech, a German mRNA specialist but unfortunately the resemblance does not extend to share price performance. Since we tipped the stock, again on the strength of a conversation with Ms Ogden, it has lost two thirds of its value.

The hope was that its vaccines would be particularly effective against new coronavirus variants but development has been slower than expected. Ms Ogden says: “We sold our stake a couple of weeks ago after the company abandoned its first-generation vaccine.” We’ll follow her lead. Sell.

Questor says: sell

Ticker: Nasdaq: CVAC

Share price at close: $35.87

Update: Avacta

Shares in this firm, which makes lateral flow tests but also develops cancer drugs, have been volatile and now stand roughly where we tipped them as a punt almost a year ago. 

It had to stop selling its tests in Britain at the beginning of the month pending approval from a new validation regime but said it was in any case more focused on overseas markets. 

The virus is far from beaten and in Questor’s view cheap rapid tests will remain crucial to the fight against it. Hold.

Questor says: hold

Ticker: AVCT

Share price at close: 109p

Update: Synairgen

We tipped this company, which makes a Covid treatment, for the second time in June; we had earlier taken profits of 92pc from our first tip last year. 

It’s another volatile stock but this column sees a role for its treatment not just against Covid but against other respiratory diseases. Its drug has just entered a second phase 3 clinical trial and we can expect the shares either to soar or to slump when results emerge. 

For small sums, it’s worth holding.

Questor says: hold

Ticker: SNG

Share price at close: 179.7p

Update: Gerresheimer

Shares in this maker of phials for vaccines have fallen by 18pc since last November’s tip. We don’t see demand for vaccines or the specialised containers they need falling for a long time to come, however. Again for speculative money, it’s a hold.

Questor says: hold

Ticker: ETR: GXI

Share price at close: €79.40

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